10 IT predictions for 2011 from IDC Canada

With the year quickly coming to a close, many IT organizations are making their predictions for 2011. IDC Canada has released its top 10 predictions for next year, predicting opportunities in the cloud, smartphone, tablet and e-reader space will continue to lead the way.

Vito Mabrucco, senior vice-president, worldwide consulting and managing director at IDC Canada, said that even though the Canadian economy “returned to growth” in 2010, there’s still an “indication of continued uncertainty in almost all markets” moving forward into 2011.

“The good news is as we get thru next year, there will be a significant upturn in the economies going into 2012,” Mabrucco said. “We’re on our way to recovery in 2011 with a full recovery expected by the end of 2012.”

With regards to some areas in tech that are predicted to grow next year, Mabrucco said the PC market will see seven per cent growth this year and almost 12 per cent next year because of product refreshes and also “a shift away from netbooks to more expensive form factors in multi PC households.”

Networking spend, which Mabrucco said declined dramatically in 2009, will grow this year and next year up to 6.5 per cent because of increasing bandwidth requirements and the need for access from multiple locations. He also said that software spending will grow as companies invest in software solutions to improve their business intelligence and collaboration tools.

Below are the top 10 tech predictions for Canada, according to the research firm.

Prediction #1: The cloud gets relevant or evaporates

Mabrucco said with more organizations attempting to do “more with less,” these days, there’s a need for “cheaper and more flexible” computing methods. With all of the hype generated around cloud computing this year, Mabrucco suggests that Canada is “overwhelmed” with the term. To combat this, manufacturers, vendors and partners will need to offer more relevant and targeted cloud offerings and make the cloud easier to understand, otherwise the opportunity in this space will begin to taper off.

Prediction #2: High-end infrastructure reinvigorated by private cloud

Trends such as virtualization and the move toward private cloud infrastructures lead to more activity around infrastructure integration, Mabrucco said. With the availability of cloud-based solutions, the value proposition is shifting to an all-in-one approach instead of the reliance on separate solutions.

Prediction #3: Big bang in the outsourcing market

“Contracts will be selectively spread across more than one vendor,” he said. “There will be a selective, best of breed approach where the delivery will integrate more services offerings. Global players that weren’t considered before will win their fair share of these deals.”

Prediction #4: Top 10 provider shake-up

Global outsourcing vendors will grow by 20 per cent in the next three years. Offshoring will continue to be driven by cost savings, access to labour and expansion with some of Canada’s global businesses, he added.

“Vendors must focus on on-demand software and infrastructure services and become thought leaders in cloud leadership,” Mabrucco said.

Prediction #5: Converged wireless and WAN data service

“Expect a major integrated network service provider to introduce the first converged wireless and wireline data service in 2011,” Mabrucco said. “This will solve major IT department painpoints because it treats all bytes equally and integrates all wireless and wireline WAN data services onto a single bill.

Prediction #6: New video services shift consumer focus away from cable and satellite TV services

As online videos continue to gain popularity in the market, Mabrucco said more pay TV subscribers will shift towards telco IPTVs (Internet Protocol Televisions).

“Multi-screen video experiences will continue to expand to mobile in 2011,” he said. “Web based video will be complementary and not a replacement to traditional pay TV and other video services. Long term, companies must deliver strong, multi-screen viewing strategies for existing customers for PCs and other devices. This will create many new revenue opportunities. While content will be the driver, the consumer experience must be made simple and easy to adopt in order to continue growth in the marketplace.”

Prediction #7: Smartphones graduate to “most essential thing”

Mabrucco said the device manufacturers that have embraced Google’s Android operating system as the platform have already started seeing early success in the market. Web-centric smartphones will continue to penetrate the market and content creators will have more distribution channels and reach next year, he added.

Prediction #8 – Breakout year for tablet and eReaders

“We’re entering into the multi-device era,” Mabrucco said.

With the creation of tablets, students and teachers will continue to engage in more paperless education as tablets become the new notebooks. In business, executives will want to be more productive, they’ll want to connect anytime, anywhere and they’ll always want the latest thing. In 2011, Mabrucco said IDC Canada expects 1.5M media tablets to ship, expanding the install base to over 2M users. He also said that since 2011 will be first full year that tablet are available, we’ll see new vendors and price points around $500. Carriers will also offer services and content and subsidize costs thru data plans to help keep the initial price down, he added.

Similarly with e-readers, Mabrucco said the competition will heat up and these devices will see double digit growth thru to 2012.

“E-readers will see lower points of about $100 which will drive higher levels of adoption,” he said.

Prediction #9: Open data will storm the Canadian public sector

“This presents a great business opportunity for organizations,” Mabrucco said. “Open data initiatives will allow the government to gain major headway in becoming more transparent with citizens. For instance, healthcare will see a boosted interest when they open data that pans locally and spans nationally.”

Prediction #10: Big data challenges continue to ramp up

As the amount of data continues to grow at a rapid pace, Mabrucco said organizations will be forced to manage their data thru “large data warehousing” initiatives.

“We anticipate leading edge Canadian organizations will explore new models to handle data challenges,” he said. “Companies need to focus on their data governance strategies. There’s an opportunity for vendors and consultants to rationalize their customers’ current data technologies to help with plans as they move into the future.”

Follow Maxine Cheung on Twitter: @MaxineCheungCDN.

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Jim Love, Chief Content Officer, IT World Canada

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Maxine Cheung
Maxine Cheung
Staff Writer, Computer Dealer News

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